Why Thierry? Why? At such an important time in the season, for New York and for the MLS, he goes and does that. If you have no idea what I'm on about, go to Thierry Henry's red card vs Sporting Kansas City. It's not like the card was even debatable. He kicked a player whilst he was down, straight under the ref's nose; he had to go.
Massive game vs Sporting Kansas City. If Sporting win, they qualify for the playoffs. If Red Bulls win, they as good as qualify. They may even qualify. A draw puts both teams in a relatively good position.
27 minutes gone. Henry gets tackled, but Red Bulls win the ball back and the guy who tackled Henry gets floored (legally). Henry is p*ssed at the guy who tackled him, so he kicks him. With the ref standing 1/2 a yard away. Straight off, no arguments. Losing their best striker pretty much condemned New York to a loss, because he provided the pace and skill upfront.
It also means that Henry misses the season finale next week vs Philadelphia.
Kansas took full advantage and ran out 2-0 winners. This means they are qualified, and Red Bulls are occupying the final play-off spot, but are fighting with 3 other teams for the 4th and final playoff spot.
The playoff table currently stands at (just the 4 teams who can qualify)
Team Played Points GD
New York 33 43 +5
Portland 32 40 -8
Chicago 33 40 0
DC United 32 38 -2
Teams are separated by Head-to-Head record, not Goal Difference, for some bizarre reason.
Fixtures remaining:
DC United vs Portland Timbers, Wednesday October 19th
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union, Thursday October 20th
DC United vs Sporting Kansas City, Saturday October 22nd
Chicago Fire vs Colombus Crew, Saturday October 22nd
Real Salt Lake vs Portland Timbers, Saturday October 22nd
The first fixture is massive. If DC win, it puts all the teams in the hunt and anyone could still qualify. If DC fail to win, it puts them out. A draw will help Portland, who have to avoid defeat to stay in. A Timbers victory would put out DC and Chicago.
If Red Bulls avoid defeat AND DC avoid defeat vs Portland, New York go through. They also go through if they win. Red Bulls have the clear advantage of a +5 Goal Difference, but also have superior H2H records vs DC United and Portland, and they drew both games to Chicago.
This gives Chicago an extremely hard route. They have to beat Columbus Crew AND DC United have to avoid defeat vs Portland AND Red Bulls have to lose AND there has to be a 5 goal turnaround. Tough stuff.
DC have to win both their remaining games AND Red Bulls lose vs Philly AND Chicago don't win vs Columbus AND Portland don't win vs Real Salt Lake. That sounds harder than it is. They have a real chance of beating Portland, and being at home to Kansas could result in a victory. Philly are 2nd in East so they're obviously going to be tough to beat, and Columbus and Salt Lake are also qualified so they're all pretty good.
Portland have to get a minimum of 4 points in their games AND Red Bulls have to lose vs Philly.
Likelihood of qualifying:
NY Red Bulls - Should probably do it (60% chance)
DC United - Depends on Wednesday (20% chance)
Portland Timbers - Depends on Wednesday (15% chance)
Chicago Fire - Extremely unlikely (5% chance)
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